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THE LATEST ON FRIDAY: There is a tough call for St. Patrick's Day. The ECMWF computer model still looks fairly aggressive, but we have lost the "look" on the GFS. The image to the left is very important as it shows a short wave trough, the little bump with the X (vorticity) in the Ohio valley running east and out to sea underneath New England. It just does not have enough amplitude and does not come far enough north to spawn a decent low pressure system near the ground level so the corresponding area of positive vorticity advection, and warm advection slide well south and are fairly non impressive. It is still early in the game though, and as I said there is some dissent from the European based computer model... but this could end up to be an out to sea event if things keep going in this direction.