THE WARM LAYER TUE. AM

There is a reason I am not too concerned at least for early Tuesday from the upcoming close call. The reason is simply this: It is too warm aloft, even in the interior. Take a look at the vertical profile of the atmosphere, called a "sounding" (click left). It is for Fitchburgh, well inland, Tue. AM. I drew the 32f line as a solid black line. As one goes up into the atmosphere, the temperature RISES for a change, and does not drop, up through around 5,000 ft, then it declines. this will melt snow on its way down from up top, at least early in the day , until that layer can get wiped out. And yes, if the storm moved close enough to us, not only would we be in trouble with a NE wind and coastal flooding, but the intensity of the precipitation would draw cold air down quicker, wiping out the warm layer. In other words, if the storm strengthens and moves a bit closer to us, we have a better chance at getting snow at all, than if it was farther away and weaker, contrary to the normal "thinking" of good students of meteorology!